The FOMC decision is the highest-severity scheduled event on the macro calendar. What moves markets is not the decision itself — it is the gap between the statement and the path that was already priced. This page keeps the calendar and the transmission map in one place.
Upcoming FOMC meetings
- 2026-11-12 21:30美国FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
- 2026-11-12 22:00美国FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
- 2026-11-12 23:00美国FOMC Member Barr Speaks
- 2026-11-13 00:15美国FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
- 2026-11-13 00:30美国FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
- 2026-11-13 02:10美国FOMC Member Daly Speaks
- 2026-11-13 02:30美国FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
- 2026-11-13 07:30美国FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 2026-11-13 22:10美国FOMC Member Collins Speaks
- 2026-11-13 22:40美国FOMC Member Logan Speaks
What actually moves on decision day
- The gap, not the level. Fed funds futures already price a path. A hold that was fully priced moves nothing; a hold with a hawkish statement moves everything.
- The dots versus the curve. When the median dot diverges from market pricing, the repricing happens in the front end first — the 2-year, then the dollar.
- The press conference. Historically the Q&A moves yields more than the statement, because it is unscripted and the market treats it as information.
- Balance sheet language. Changes to runoff speed hit long-end supply expectations, which is a 10-year and 30-year story rather than a policy-rate story.
Why size matters more than direction
A 25bp move that was priced is a non-event; a 50bp move that was not is a repricing across every asset. The severity we assign to a Fed event reflects the surprise and the breadth of assets it touches, not the direction of the decision.
Recent Federal Reserve events we scored
- Critical 94Wall St ends lower as hot inflation data, Fed comments heighten rate worries -11-11
- Critical 92Dallas Fed's Logan Warns October PCE Inflation Could Rise — Sees Faster Rate H11-11
- Critical 92US yields climb, stocks fall as inflation data boosts chances for larger Fed r11-11
- Critical 92Fed officials open door to a quicker round of rate hikes as inflation worsens11-11
- Critical 92Bonds reel as hot inflation fuels jumbo Fed hike fears - Reuters11-11
- Critical 92Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks11-11
- Critical 92Gold Slips Below $4,000 on Hot Inflation Data and Fed Rate-Hike Bets - News an11-12
- Critical 91Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks - Bloomberg.com11-11