CPI is the single most-watched macro release in the US. It moves the front end of the curve within seconds, and through that it moves the dollar, gold, and equity multiples. This page collects the schedule, the transmission path, and the one thing that changed this cycle: the October 2026 report shipped without a 12-month change.
Why October 2026 had no year-over-year number
The 2025 government shutdown meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected a full set of October 2025 prices. A 12-month change requires the same month a year earlier, and those prices cannot be reconstructed after the fact. BLS therefore published October 2026 as month-over-month only — no headline YoY, no core YoY, and no real earnings series either.
The practical consequence: the number most of the market quotes when it says "inflation" was missing for exactly one month, while the month-over-month print was still available. Markets priced the surprise, but not the level.
Upcoming CPI releases
- 2026-11-13 07:45 欧元区 French Final CPI m/m f 0.4%
- 2026-11-25 13:30 美国 PCE (Personal Income and Outlays)
- 2026-12-10 13:30 美国 CPI (Consumer Price Index)
- 2026-12-10 13:30 美国 CPI (Consumer Price Index Excluding Energy Commodities)
- 2026-12-10 13:30 美国 CPI (Research Consumer Price Index)
- 2026-12-23 13:30 美国 PCE (Personal Income and Outlays)
What CPI actually moves
- Front-end yields. The 2-year is the cleanest read on expected policy. A hot print lifts it within minutes; an 18bp one-day move is roughly 0.7 of a 25bp hike priced in.
- The dollar. Higher expected rates widen rate differentials, which is why DXY usually firms on a hot print — unless the surprise is driven by energy, which is imported inflation and a terms-of-trade negative.
- Gold. Gold trades real yields, not nominal ones. A hot CPI that lifts nominal yields but compresses breakevens is the painful combination for the metal.
- Equity multiples. Real-rate shocks compress multiples; growth shocks compress earnings. The distinction matters more than the headline reaction.
The three numbers inside the report
- Headline m/m — the monthly change, including food and energy. Noisy, but it is what the market trades on release day.
- Core m/m — excludes food and energy. This is the one the Fed watches, because it is the better read on persistent inflation.
- YoY headline and core — the level change. Slower-moving, but it is the figure quoted in public debate, which is why losing it for a month matters.
Recent CPI-related events we scored
- Critical 94 Wall St ends lower as hot inflation data, Fed comments heighten rate worries - 11-11
- Critical 92 Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks 11-11
- Critical 92 Bonds reel as hot inflation fuels jumbo Fed hike fears - Reuters 11-11
- Critical 92 Fed officials open door to a quicker round of rate hikes as inflation worsens 11-11
- Critical 92 US yields climb, stocks fall as inflation data boosts chances for larger Fed r 11-11
- Critical 92 Dallas Fed's Logan Warns October PCE Inflation Could Rise — Sees Faster Rate H 11-11
- Critical 92 Gold Slips Below $4,000 on Hot Inflation Data and Fed Rate-Hike Bets - News an 11-11
- Critical 91 Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks - Bloomberg.com 11-11
Every event page carries a severity score (0-100), a category, and a written read covering direction, magnitude, confidence, and what would invalidate the call. Sources are listed on each page.