FOMC 决议是宏观日历上严重度最高的日程事件。真正推动市场的不是决议本身， 而是声明与"已经被定价的路径"之间的差距。

即将召开的 FOMC 会议

• 2026-11-12 21:30美国FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
• 2026-11-12 22:00美国FOMC Member Hammack Speaks
• 2026-11-12 23:00美国FOMC Member Barr Speaks
• 2026-11-13 00:15美国FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
• 2026-11-13 00:30美国FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
• 2026-11-13 02:10美国FOMC Member Daly Speaks
• 2026-11-13 02:30美国FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
• 2026-11-13 07:30美国FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 2026-11-13 22:10美国FOMC Member Collins Speaks
• 2026-11-13 22:40美国FOMC Member Logan Speaks

决议当天真正推动市场的因素

• 是差距，不是水平。 联邦基金期货已经隐含了一条路径。完全被定价的按兵不动不产生波动； 带鹰派措辞的按兵不动则会重定价所有资产。
• 点阵图 vs 曲线。 当中位数点位与市场定价背离，重定价先发生在短端——2 年期，然后美元。
• 发布会。 历史上问答环节对收益率的推动大于声明本身，因为它是即兴的，市场把它当作信息。
• 缩表措辞。 缩减速度的变化影响长端供给预期，属于 10 年、30 年的故事，不是政策利率的故事。

近期我们评分的联储事件

• 重大 94Wall St ends lower as hot inflation data, Fed comments heighten rate worries -11-11
• 重大 92Dallas Fed's Logan Warns October PCE Inflation Could Rise — Sees Faster Rate H11-11
• 重大 92US yields climb, stocks fall as inflation data boosts chances for larger Fed r11-11
• 重大 92Fed officials open door to a quicker round of rate hikes as inflation worsens11-11
• 重大 92Bonds reel as hot inflation fuels jumbo Fed hike fears - Reuters11-11
• 重大 92Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks11-11
• 重大 92Gold Slips Below $4,000 on Hot Inflation Data and Fed Rate-Hike Bets - News an11-12
• 重大 91Gold Holds Loss Near $4,000 on Hot US Inflation, Fed Remarks - Bloomberg.com11-11